Gradual volume recovery - Maybank Kim Eng
Apr volumes were expectedly weak. We estimate distribution volume to gradually improve in 3Q20 as the economy restarts, and so we tweaked our 2020 earnings forecast up slightly. Maintain BUY and SOTP TP of IDR1,150 due to attractive risk and return. Government intervention is the main risk to our call.
April volumes Declining economic activity and low oil prices put pressure on gas and and O&G volumes in Apr. Gas distribution volume dropped 8.7% MoM to 804mmscfd. 4M20 volume of 862mmscfd (-3.8% YoY) was higher than our initial FY20 assumption of 589mmscfd. Gas transmission volume declined 2.2% MoM. 4M20 volume was 1,332mmscfd (+0.6% YoY) and was in line with our FY20 assumption of 1,369mmscfd. O&G volume was flat (-0.2%) MoM at 17,261boepd. 4M20 volume of 19,921boepd (-30.5% YoY) was below our FY20 assumption of 24,050boepd.
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