Gradual recovery from pandemic slowdown - Ciptadana
Covid-19: enigma to global economy Since its first occurrence in late 2019, Covid-19 has wrecked the world. The number of lives taken now exceeds 1 mn and the number of infections is already above 33 mn globally, of which 60% are in developing countries. The condition sustains the uncertainty that 2019 left to 2020. Thus, there are three major issues triggering world’s uncertainty that we see will remain in 2021: the pandemic, de-globalization and US – China dispute. However, the current ups and downs of economic recovery including the progress of vaccine rekindle hope towards the prospect of global economy. Though global economic growth is estimated to decline by 4.9% YoY in 2020, it is expected to soar by 5.4% YoY in 2021.
Pandemic containment in SEA Covid-19 containment measures like lockdowns and international travel bans were imposed by all ASEAN countries. Despite of our large-scale social restriction (PSBB) in mid Mar-20, Indonesia becomes country with most confirmed Covid-19 cases in ASEAN. We see the combination of strict lockdowns and those highly exposed to international travel will face harder comeback to their pre-Covid levels of output until 2021. Though the stimulus is relatively low compared the ASEAN5, we’ve been more optimistic about Indonesia’s trajectory given better mobility and macroeconomic indicators.
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